My life and business are full of experts. That’s good thing. Experts know things that I will not ever learn myself, nor have any interest in learning.
Please note that experts are much different than “those with opinions”, I see many more opinions expressed in the course of the day than expertly vetted information. In almost all cases, the old adage about opinions is true for these too – even if they’re free, they’re still not worth it.
Yesterday, my wife and I met with our friend and expert financial advisor – Bob Rubin. Bob manages the majority of our investable assets. He’s super knowledgeable, an experienced student of market fundamentals and quick to make recommendations backed with facts.
Our question was, “What do you think is driving the stock market?” Bob’s response, “other than irrational exuberance, I’m not sure”.
He admitted that it bothered him to say it.
Bob realizes we put our trust in his ability to read the market. He went on to add “the market isn’t behaving normally based on any traditional model.”
Conclusion? “I don’t know.”
My judgement of the market before our meeting was “I don’t know” also. However, my response tells me much less since my “I don’t know” is partially born of ignorance as I’m not a market expert.
Bob’s “I don’t know” was credible.
An interesting thing about “I don’t know” is that it indicates the need for more action rather than inaction. “I don’t know” does not mean “do nothing.”
How do we make a decision in an “I don’t know” situation? In this case, we looked at the possible outcomes, and possible actions based on these outcomes.
Outcome #1 – The Best-Case Scenario. The market will continue to rebound. Action: Buy stocks.
Outcome #2 – The Middle Road. The market will decline because investors will realize their irrational exuberance. Action: Sell stocks.
Outcome #3 – The Worst-Case Scenario. The market will decline because there is a loss of confidence in the dollar. Action: Sell stocks and other assets, buy gold and bitcoin and build our survivalist retreat on high ground in central Florida.
Debating these options, we selected the most “likely”, with the guidance of our expert Bob. While considering, we took into account our current circumstances, biases and checked our gut reactions.
A major factor supporting Outcome #1 was – “where else are people going to put their money?” In the end we just couldn’t consider that an investment strategy.
Outcome #3 seemed too extreme in the moment, we’ll know over the next few months if we made the right choice there.
So, Outcome #2 it is! Bob moved to take more of our assets out of the market.
Have you been hearing “I don’t know” from experts who have known the answer to your past questions?
How does all this apply to your business?
“When will the Covid pandemic be over?”
The expert consensus is “I don’t know.” That’s likely the most responsible answer we could hear, or give. In fact, my BS detector alarms when anyone has a certain answer to this question.
How does this inform you about your plan for your business?
What’s your worst-case scenario? Best? Middle road? The middle road sounds reasonable, but is it most likely? What are the business circumstances, personal biases (ego anyone?) or gut reactions you and your team have?
Our best answer, gleaned from experts and news sources, to “When will the Covid pandemic be over?” is “Sometime in 2021” – pretty darn close to “I don’t know.”
As a result, we’re planning to operate virtually for the next year, and have begun to set expectations with clients that reflect that. That’s not a terrible response for a company like mine that is organized virtually anyway. I realize it is not a possibility for many company owners though.
For most, the current choices range from undesirable to terrible. Though the choices are bad, please don’t let that deter you from selecting one. At a time when “I don’t know” is actually the responsible answer, we make the best choice we can and move ahead.
If you need the support of a business expert to select the best choice, you can find me here >> http://billionizeme.com
Jeff@COOForYou.com
888-588-0357